Namasthe Telangana has done a stunning job by revealing the contents of SKC’s chapter 8. This has emphasized the need for a separate Telangana daily. Don’t miss the supplementary note!
Secret leaked
In the year 2004, elections were held for the Parliament as well as State Assembly. Some of the political parties, particularly, the TRS which was a political outfit that was formed with a sole agenda of seeking statehood for Telangana joined in an alliance with the Indian National Congress, which also included in its election manifesto, a promise, to create separate Telangana State. For one reason or the other, there was no progress in this direction. In the General Elections held in 2009, many more political parties included this, in their manifestos. Including the congress, the TDP also categorically declared in its election manifesto about its support for bifurcation of the state to form a state of Telangana.
Later on, there was an alliance forged by four parties opposed to the congress called the “ grand alliance” led by the TDP having TRS and left parties in the multi- party alliance. But the results were disappointing to these parties. In the last quarter of 2009, demand for separate Telangana State gained momentum. Noticing the gravity of the situation, the Government of India initiated the steps for consultation with political parties. Ultimately, a statement was made by the Union Home Minister on 09- 12- 2009, to the effect that the process for formation of separate Telangana will be initiated. There were protests from the people of Andhra and Rayalaseema areas for this proposal. The people of Telangana, on the other hand, insisted that the Government must adhere to its statement.
Taking note of the disturbances in both the regions, the Government of India announced the formation of a Committee that started its work on 03- 02- 2010. The committee comprised : Shri Justice B. N. Srikrishna, retired Judge, Supreme Court of India – Chairman Prof. ( Dr.) Ranbir Singh, Vice- Chancellor, National Law University, Delhi – Member Dr.
Abusalem Shariff, Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute, Delhi – Member Dr. ( Ms.) Ravinder Kaur, Professor, Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, IIT, Delhi – Member and Shri Vinod K. Duggal, IAS ( Retd.) former Home Secretary – Member Secretary. The Terms of Reference was primarily to examine the situation in the State of Andhra Pradesh with reference to the demand for a separate State of Telangana as well as the demand for maintaining the present status of a united Andhra Pradesh. The Committee was requested to submit its report by December 31, 2010. The Committee has undertaken wide ranging consultations. Ultimately, a report was submitted on 30- 12- 2010. The report comprised of Nine Chapters. In the last chapter, viz., “ The Way Forward,” six suggestions were made to the Government. The Committee itself observed that four suggestions made by it do not merit consideration. In its fifth suggestion, it recommended bifurcation of the State into Telangana and Seemandhra, as per the existing boundaries. In this very suggestion, it has elaborated the pros and cons and observed that, it is the second best option. The sixth recommendation made by it was, keeping the State of Andhra Pradesh united by provinding safeguards. The Committee treated that as the best option. Chapter VIII pertains to law and order and internal security dimensions. However, the committee did not make the text of Chapter- VIII, as part of its report. The only paragraph that occurs in Chapter- VIII reads: “ Law & Order and Internal Security Dimensions”. A note on the above covering all aspects has been prepared and submitted to the Ministry of Home Affairs in a separate cover along with the Report. It is apt to note that the report of the Committee was made public, at an All Party Meeting, convened by the Union Home Minister on January 5 th , 2011.
The SKC has also mentioned in its note that if state of Telangana is formed, as suggested in the 5 th option, it would become an epicenter for Maoist violence and communal violence. The note suggests that Maoists will extend their activities to various districts of Telangana. That the Committee travelled beyond the terms of reference in its endeavour to persuade the Union of India, not to accede to the demand for Telangana, is demonstrated in a three- page Supplementary Note, appended to the note, representing Chapter- VIII. The Supplementary Note has three parts and it reads: a) Political Management. ( b) Media Management. ( c) Full Preparedness. In the end the moral of the story is that, suppression beyond a point becomes counter- productive. Deccan Post too believes that it is only the solutions that are brought about through mutual discussion and democratic process, that will provide a long- lasting, respectable and peaceful solution and sadly not the tricks as suggested above. Deccan Post which has obtained this copy ( courtesy due to the untiring efforts of its correspondent B Shivkant) from a private person working for a politician- businessman is shocked beyond its comprehension that this report kept confidential by the union government agencies is freely available to all those who are influential while on the other hand refusing to provide it for concerned citizens. Compelling them to approach the courts seeking the copy of Chapter VIII from the union government. Deccan Post only after carefully verifying with the contents of the judgement that was delivered by the single bench of AP High Court has come to a reasonable conclusion that this copy made available to its correspondent has coherent and chronological expression that cannot be dismissed as figment of imagination. Since Deccan Post believes that the common man too has a right to know what is known to most of those who have access to privileged information. It deems it a great honour in the service of the common man to have a scent of what constitutes “ Chapter VIII”.
United Andhra vis-à-vis Separate Telangana Issue
1. INTRODUCTION
This detailed note covers the likely immediate backlash/ law and order situations that get created in the State on the submission of the Report at the end of the month as a reaction to the perceived course of action by the Government of India on whatever option may finally get exercised. The note also discusses some major long term internal security related issues. The assessment given in the note is based on ( i) analysis of certain relevant memoranda given by the political parties and other groups ( ii) information gained through interaction with different political parties/ groups at State level and during field visits ( districts and villages) ( iii) discussions held with Senior Officers of the State Government including that of the Police Department with District Collectors and Superintendents of Police and with other sources and ( v) own experience.
2. BACKGROUND
2.1 The demand for a separate Telangana State had been existing even before the creation of the State of Andhra Pradesh on November 1, 1956 after the merger of Telangana areas of the erstwhile Hyderabad State with the State of Andhra that had been carved out in 1953 out of the Madras Presidency. Prior to the merger and with a view to provide safeguards for protecting the interest of Telangana, an agreement called ‘ The Gentleman’s Agreement’ involving the leaders of both the regions was signed in February, 1956. However, discontent over the ab- initio non- implementation of some of the key decisions ( ibid Chapter 1 of Report) in the Agreement resulted in a major “ separate Telangana agitation” in 1968- 1969. This agitation which was mainly spearheaded by the students started in Warangal District in December 1968 and spread to other regions of Telangana receiving support of various parties and organizations of the region. In the wake of this agitation there was large scale destruction of public/ private property.
Besides, reportedly it resulted in the death of 57 persons with 217 persons injured as per the figures based on Andhra Pradesh police inputs). The agitation was, however, brought under control after a few months on account of the strong stand taken by Smt. Indira Gandhi, the then Prime Minister. The Government of India promised to undertake remedial action against the violations of the Agreement and P. V. Narasimha Rao belonging to Telangana region, was made Chief Minister of the State on September 30, 1971.
2.2 On 28th March, 1969, the Mulki rules were held invalid by the High Court.
However, the Supreme Court declared them constitutionally valid on October 3, 1972 giving rise to a situation where jobs occupied by the Andhra People were required to be vacated. The reaction to this development was that it led to a strong ‘ Jai Andhra movement’ in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions in late 1972. This movement also witnessed a high level of violence resulting in 69 causalities. Among these, seven Government personnel were killed and 66 injured. Around 350 citizens were also injured. This movement was also contained through firm handling with the intervention of the Government of India. P. V. Narasimha Rao resigned as CM on January 10, 1973 and President’s Rule was imposed. A political settlement was worked out and a Six Point Formula ( SPF) was agreed upon on September 28, 1973 by both the regions. A Presidential Order was promulgated on May 3, 1975 which provided for accelerated development of backward areas, state level Planning Boards/ Sub Committees for backward areas, reservation for local candidates for non- gazetted posts/ educational institutions, discontinuation of Telangana
Regional Committee and Mulki Rules.
Accordingly, the state was divided into Six Zones and Hyderabad was included in Zone 6.
However, for the State Secretariat, directorates, commissionerates and state level offices located in Hyderabad, recruitment was done treating Hyderabad as a free zone i. e. anybody in the state could compete. Over a period of time, there were violations in the implementation of SPF and GO 610 was issued ( December 30, 1985) to rectify them.
The Girgilani Commission appointed by the State Government pointed out in 2004 that there had been several instances of violations of the GO 610 during the previous 30 years and recommended corrective action. AP High Court also issued direction for implementation of GO 610 within 3 months. The Government issued 4 GOs, out of which GOs 72 and 116 were not implemented, while GOs 399 and 415 were issued and later cancelled.
The implementation of GO 610 in the last 4 to 5 years, however, has been reported to be satisfactory with a major part of the grievances redressed. Recently, the Supreme Court cancelled ( October 9, 2009) the transfer orders of some police inspectors ( as per GO 610), holding that Hyderabad being a cosmopolitan city should be treated as a free zone.
Subsequent to this order the Andhra Pradesh Assembly passed a Resolution on 18.3.2010 as quoted below: “ This House resolves to request the Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India to obtain the approval of President of India to Clause ( 1) of Para 14 of the Andhra Pradesh Public Employment ( organization of Local cadres and Regulation of Direct Recruit) Order 1975”. ( The above resolution has been forwarded to Government of India.) 2.3 Meanwhile, simmering discontentment among Telangana people over nonimplementation of various protective provisions for Telangana was highlighted by Telangana Rashtra Samithi ( TRS) which was floated on April 27, 2001 by K Chandrasekhar Rao ( KCR). In 2004 general elections TRS entered into an alliance with the Congress Party with a commitment for creation of Telangana as a separated State. TRS joined both the State and Central Government, and the issue was included in the Common Minimum Programme of UPA- 1. The GoI appointed a Cabinet Sub Committee headed by Pranab Mukherjee on January 5, 2005 to evolve a consensus on the issue. However, the Pranab Committee could not arrive at any clear cut conclusion and reportedly suggested appointment of a Second States’ Reorganisation Commission to look into the issue. KCRejected the suggestion and withdrew from both the central government and state governments in protest. Between 2004 and 2009 KCRepresented the Karimnagar Parliament seat. Sensing adverse mood of the people towards the failure of KCR he resigned his seat in 2006. He retained his seat in the keenly contested bye- election by a huge margin. Many protagonists of Telangana campaigned extensively for that election. Subsequently, KCR started losing support within the party and yet again he enforced bye- elections in four Lok Sabha seats and 16 assembly seats. The outcome of the bypolls was a huge set back as KCR lost many seats held by his partymen. The percentage of vote share obtained by the TRS attracted the attention of TDP and its leader Chandra Babu Naidu to explore a possible tie- up. The TDP which fought the 2004 general elections on the plank of united Andhra Pradesh has reversed its decision to take advantage of the strong sentiment prevailing in the Telangana Districts.
At the time of general elections held in 2009, TRS joined the TDP’s grand alliance. The congress party contested without any allies.
The Telangana Congress leaders asserted that Smt. Sonia Gandhi, would take an appropriate decision on Telangana at an appropriate time.
The TRSuffered big electoral defeat winning just 10 seats for the state assembly and just two seats for the Parliament. The Telangana protagonists deserted the TRS and KCR. Only after the demise of former CM YS Rajasekhar Reddy, the state politics ran into instability bringing back the demand for Telangana state.
The announcement over the formation of State of Telangana made by the union government on 9th December, 2009 had generated unrest among the Seemandhra people. The union government had constituted this committee to examine the demand for a separate state of Telangana as well as the demand for maintaining the present status of a united Andhra Pradesh.
3. PRESENT SITUATION
3.1 The demand for a separate State of Telangana has its root in the perceived discrimination against the people of Telangana by the Seemandhra leaders in the fields of education, water and irrigation resources, job opportunities including employment in Government and issues of development, besides the unfulfilment of some key assurances given in the Gentlemen’s Agreement particularly pertaining to political space for Telangana ( e. g. CM/ Dy. CM).
Different communities/ groups have their own perception on benefits which may accrue to them from the formation of Telangana. In addition, there is a strong emotional factor attached with the demand for a separate state.
The people of Telangana believe that the problem of discrimination against their region that has existed hitherto can only be overcome by having their own independent identity.
3.2 The student community and the unemployed youth feel that the creation of new State will lead to increased employment opportunities for them, as the government jobs in Telangana region will then not go to the Seemandhra people. The student community is already campaigning for 42% reservation in Group- I posts for those belonging to Telangana and boycotted classes/ examinations and organized bandh on the issue on September 4 and 5, 2010, respectively.
Telangana lawyers also see a separate State as an opportunity to get more appointments to the posts of Public Prosecutors, Assistant Public Prosecturors and Standing Counsels in the New State. They, under the banner of Telangana Advocates Joint Action Committee, started an agitation on September 13, 2010 targetting judges and advocates belonging to Seemandhra region demanding a 42% reservation in the said posts. There has been a long standing demand for appointment of the Advocate General hailing from Telangana. The government employees of Telangana also welcome the formation of a new State as they feel that this may lead to faster promotions.
Government employees belonging to Seemandhra region, though generally opposed to the formation of a new State, are not coming out openly against the demand for Telangana, fearing action and witch- hunt by pro- Telangana political parties in the eventuality of a separate State being formed. The expectations of the farmers have also been raised that they will gain both in terms of availability of water as well as power, in the new State. Several caste groups, especially those belonging to backward classes and minorities have also been allured with promises of free education at all levels and increase in reservation for them in government jobs in the new State.
3.3 The Muslim community, especially the All India Majlis Ittehadul Musalmeen ( AIMIM), the main Muslim political party of Andhra Pradesh, is apprehensive of the fate and status of the Muslim community, in the eventuality of a separate Telangana being formed. This concern arises out of the fact that BJP being a strong proponent of the ongoing pro- Telangana agitation is likely to play a bigger role after the formation of a new state. The AIMIM, however, has decided against openly opposing the formation of separate Telangana, fearing a backlash, both against the party and the Muslim community, in the event of the new State being formed. Besides, many Muslims residing in various districts of Telangana are also strongly supporting the new State. Their grievance of not getting adequate jobs and loss of land held by them is noteworthy. Accordingly, AIMIM has diluted its stand of completely opposing Telangana and is now indirectly supporting the formation of a new State albeit, comprising the erstwhile territory of the Nawab of Hyderabad, viz.
Telangana region along with Rayalaseema ( Rayala Telangana) as a second option in case keeping the State united does not work out.
However, this may not be acceptable to the Andhra leaders who would lose Hyderabad completely and also face hardship in securing rights over river waters.
4. POSSIBLE OPTIONS
4.1 The committee has discussed six possible options in the concluding part of the Report not recommending the first three and giving preferential order to the remaining three. The backlash/ law & order problems and the internal security related issues in case of each of the six options/ scenarios ( as listed below) have been covered in this paragraph.
Scenario 1) To treat the movement as a normal law and order situation to be handled purely by the State with usual support from the Centre Scenario 2) Creation of a separate State of Telangana with Hyderabad becoming a Union Territory.
Scenario 3) To merge Rayalaseema with Telangana and create a new State Rayala Telangana with Hyderabad as its Capital Scenario 4) In case of a separate Telangana, creation of a larger Union Territory of Hyderabad by connecting Hyderabad ( HMDA) with Guntur ( Coastal Andhra) in South- East and Kurnool ( Rayalaseema) in the South via Nalgonda and Mehboobnagar ( both Telangana districts) respectively through creation of appropriate corridors by merging a few Mandals with Hyderabad ( HMDA) Scenario 5) To grant Statehood to Telangana with Hyderabad as its Capital Scenario 6) Providing Constitutional/ Statutory safeguards to Telangana region by guaranteeing redressal of the region’s major grievances and keeping the State united.
SCENARIO 1
To treat the movement as a normal law and order situation to be handled purely by the State with usual support from the Centre: ( a) Agitations: ( i) In view of the fact that under this option the employment and other expectations and particularly the emotional satisfaction of the people of Telangana will not be met, immediate backlash will take place in the form of violent agitations in Telangana region which may continue for a few months.
However, besides sporadic agitations on specific demands like employment opportunities, sharing of water resources etc.
may continue for a longer period. In Telangana, the backlash is likely to be more pronounced in TRS dominated districts of Karimnagar, Warangal, Medak and parts of Nizamabad.
( ii) Furthermore it is anticipated that the agitation in and around Hyderabad would be intense, since the various Joint Action Committees of students, advocates, government employees, youth and mass organizations would try to paralyse normal life in and around Hyderabad. The agitations by the coal workers of Singareni Coal Company Ltd ( SCCL) ( spread over Karimnagar, Adilabad, Khammam and Warangal districts) would adversely affect coal production. This in turn would affect the coal supply to the thermal power plants and thus the power position both at the state and national level.
The rail and road traffic in the Telangana region may also be affected. The agitations are also expected to adversely affect the functioning of industrial and other business establishments. The pro- Telangana agitators are likely to target business establishments and financial interests/ assets of the Seemandhra leaders. This will adversely affect the inflow of investments into Hyderabad thus hampering the city’s economic growth and creating public unrest on account of lost employment opportunities.
( iii) The peoples’ representatives especially MLAs, MLCs and MPs from Telangana region belonging to all political parties would be under pressure to resign as evidenced earlier. Telangana Rashtra Samithi ( TRS) and the recently constituted Telangana Praja Front ( TPF – Gaddar) would take the lead in organizing various programmes. Mass resignations could create political crisis in the state. The verbal attack of the Telangana leaders against the Seemandhra leaders is expected to increase. The divisions within Congress, the TDP, as well as the state cabinet will need to be watched and suitably addressed. Public property like government offices, road transport vehicles etc., would need to be secured as they are likely to be the target of the agitationists. Hyderabad has about 100 central institutions including defence establishments and defence research institutions that are important from the national security point of view. A separate plan would have to be drawn up for the protection of these institutions. Besides, the social, economic and political tensions, prolonged Telangana agitation would put a severe strain on the State’s law and order machinery.
( b) Maoist Violence: In the event of the demand of a separate Telangana state not being realized, some of the militant elements which have been in the forefront of the agitations may go underground to revive the Maoist movement in certain pockets of Telangana which, however, could possibly be tackled within a small time- frame with firm political will and strong administrative action.
The Maoists who are active in Dandakaranya and Andhra- Orissa Border areas viz., Khammam, East Godavari, Vizag etc., and certain forest areas of Adilabad, Karimnagar and Warangal may continue to operate along the borders with Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra and Orissa. Their activities might be more intense in Vizag and Khammam regions but the fall out of violence may mostly be confined to these few districts.
( c) Communal Violence : As the State has, by and large, been able to neutralize most of the Jihadi elements in the last two decades and has evolved suitable mechanisms to contain communal and factional resistances, there may not be much change on the position on these two fronts. The status quo may remain. Since the alignment of political forces on communal lines is likely to be less probable, the outbreak of communal violence would be contingent upon extraneous factors.
( d) Migration issues : Since Hyderabad city or greater Hyderabad ( GHMC) limits have been a focused area for development and investments, both skilled and unskilled labour of all the three regions may continue to migrate to Hyderabad city, putting tremendous pressure on the water and land utilization. These migrants may alter the population dynamics of Hyderabad city and the competition for employment opportunities and the subsequent frustration may lead to sporadic conflicts between people of various regions in Hyderabad city.
SCENARIO 2
Creation of separate State of Telangana with Hyderabad becoming a Union Territory ( a) Agitations: Apart from the backlash mentioned in Scenario- 1, there may be severe discontentment among the people of Telangana that Hyderabad city, which has been historically part of Telangana, has been taken away from them. Telangana without Hyderabad will be handicapped in terms of State revenues, industrial growth, employment potential, education, infrastructure and other facilities, leading to large scale dissatisfaction and unrest in the region. Hyderabad could emerge as an Island surrounded by a region that is unhappy with its residents – while the residents of Hyderabad would be dependent
on the surroundings for several resources and transport. In addition, Hyderabad city which is dependent upon Telangana for drinking water supplies, and is surrounded by Telangana, may face the consequences of violent agitations of Telangana which could lead to blockade of supply in drinking water, transportation, other services etc. Hyderabad may also provide the base for agitation to both Telanganites and Seemandhra people.
( b) Maoist Violence: Telangana without Hyderabad city may face a set back with a vast chunk of its populace deprived of economic opportunities and thereby provide a fertile ground for Naxalism to flourish.Hyderabad city may also be affected by Maoist activities, as Maoists will try to use Hyderabad city for shelter and generation of funds. Since the State would be divided, it may become a difficult task for the security forces to coordinate operations to curb Maoists activities in the urban areas of Hyderabad, in the forest tracts of Telangana and Seemandhra.
( c) Communal Violence : The political forces viz., the AIMIM and the BJP in their race to consolidate and expand their base may arouse passions causing a deeper divide between the Hindus and Muslims. This may create a favourable atmosphere for the communal forces to take charge and cause disharmony, which may have a cascading effect in other parts of Telangana and rest of the country, providing a fertile hunting ground for the terror elements. This scenario may lead to coordination problems for the security forces to carry out their operations.
( d) Migration : Hyderabad as a UT, may also have influx of migrants from other States, increasing pressure on land, water, disparities between people of various regions fuelling social unrest both in Telangana as well as in Hyderabad. The citizens of Telangana may get treated as non- locals in Hyderabad city, limiting their employment prospects and economic growth, and this frustration can lead to conflicts. The students of Telangana region would become more dependent on Hyderabad for advanced studies in professional courses and higher education, as scope for undertaking professional courses presently is rather limited in the Telangana region. This may lead to discontent among the students, fuelling student agitations. In case of a separate Telangana, the feeling is that Rayalaseema will continue to be neglected in Seemandhra.
Hence there is likelihood of starting of the demand for separate Rayalaseema and consequent agitations.
SCENARIO 3
To merge Rayalaseema with Telangana and create a new State Rayalatelangana with Hyderabad as its Capital 1. This scenario is not likely to be accepted either by the pro- Telangana or by the United- Andhra protagonists. The only groups who are likely to be satisfied are i) AIMIM, who have been saying that if a new State has to be carved out, then it should comprise the areas of Telangana and Rayalaseema and ii) certain sections of society of Rayalaseema region.Since BJP has a strong presence, it may try to consolidate in Telangana areas and further expand its base. AIMIMay try to expand in Rayalaseema regions resulting in birth of militant communalism in certain pockets. The potentially affected areas are expected to be: Adoni ( Kurnool), Kadiri, Hindipur ( Anantapur), Madanapalli, Punganuru ( Chittoor) and Rayachoti and Kadapa town.
2. The emotional as well as the economic aspirations of the people of Telangana will also not be served, as there is a predominant feeling among the people of Telangana that the Rayalaseema leaders have taken over the commercially profitable land of Hyderabad city and will continue to dominate the people of Telangana. It is to be noted that not a single political and social group from Telangana responded favourably to this suggestion wherever the Committee had an opportunity to discuss the same with them.
3. The situation described later in scenario- 5 may also generally apply in this case too in certain respects.
SCENARIO 4
In case of separate Telangana, creation of a larger Union Territory of Hyderabad by connecting Hyderabad ( HMDA) with Guntoor ( Coastal Andhra) in South- East and Kurnool ( Rayalaseema) in the South via Nalgonda and Mahboob Nagar ( both Telangana districts) respectively through creation of appropriate corridors by merging a few Mandals with Hyderabad ( HMDA) 1. This proposal links Hyderabad to all the three regions of the State so that these regions have geographical contiguity and physical access to Hyderabad which has emerged as the key issue in the entire scheme of things.
Hyderabad may then contain the capitals of both Telangana as well as Coastal Andhra and may even cater to the possible resultant aspirations of Rayalaseema.
2. While larger Union Territory of Hyderabad to be governed on a mixed ( Chandigarh Delhi) with a Legislative Assembly and a Lt. Governor may have the advantage of addressing the issue relating to the status of Hyderabad and may even make Hyderabad Megapolis, an economic giant in due course and in the process help the border towns of all the three regions to grow substantially ( as seen in Delhi and Chandigarh), inputs received indicate that reactions to this option are also expected to be on the same lines as indicated in Scenario 2 discussed earlier and there will be, atleast for a period of time, serious agitations particularly from Telangana region on two counts namely ( i) Hyderabad not becoming exclusively the capital of Telangana and ( ii) merging parts of two districts of Telangana for creation of the larger Union Territory. The political agreement on this proposal may also prove to be difficult to arrive at thus creating other governance related tensions. In fact, Scenario 2 would be relatively easier for convincing Telanganites.
SCENARIO 5
To grant Statehood to Telangana with Hyderabad as its Capital 1. In this scenario, although the emotional aspirations of the people of Telangana to have their own State will be satisfied, economic expectations, including enhanced job opportunities which they expect, may not actually materialize. This may lead to frustration among the youth ( who are in the forefront of this agitation), professionals and even farmers. This frustration may lead to ‘ scape- goating’, leading to targeted attacks on Seemandhra settlers and their properties. The reasons for the same are given below:- ( i) The pro- Telangana political parties and forums are blaming the Seemandhra people for the neglect of Telangana region and are offering tall promises after the creation of the new State. However, the fact remains that it would not be possible to fulfill all these promises due to inherent factors. This does not imply that there would be no additional job opportunities and promotional avenues in the new State. However, these numbers are likely to fall way short of expectations.
( ii) The only way, the economic aspirations of the people of Telangana can be met is by accelerated economic development in the region. This is dependent on political stability, maintenance of law and order, availability of natural resources and of skilled manpower. However, it has been experienced in the contemporary period, that Nation and its constituents e. g. states encounter threats from a number of political, social and religious formations with ultra and radical views which tend to threaten the security of nationhood or as in this case statehood. Andhra Pradesh has been under the threat of leftwing extremists for a long period though for the present the problem has been largely contained. The important question that emerges in this context is that, whether a separate State of Telangana can sustain the state supremacy over the leftwing agitations and threats from other radical/ extremists organizations/ groups. As discussed in the succeeding sub- paragraphs, the existing scenario in regard to this issue does not offer an optimistic picture. Most of the industries etc. are located in and around Hyderabad. With the bifurcation of the state and Hyderabad in Telangana region, incidents of agitations, dharnas and even violence, are expected. This may result in flight of capital, stagnant growth and disincentive for entrepreneurs, leading to slow down of economic activity. In the short term Hyderabad may witness a vicious cycle of agitations, slow down of economic activity and greater frustration. These factors along with irrigation/ water issues would have a definite adverse impact on revenue generation and industrial development of the State and may actually offset any gains in terms of additional employment opportunities and promotional avenues that will emerge.
( iii) There is also every likelihood of revival of agitations against the formation of a new State in the Seemandhra region, including in the city of Hyderabad.
( a) Maoist violence: ( i) The Maoists are also likely to gain by the creation of a new state. The new state is likely to be soft towards them initially, given that they have over the years supported the struggle for the formation of Telangana. By the time the state realizes the Maoist menace, it may be too late for the state to handle them with a bifurcated police force contributing to a weaker response to the problem. The CPI ( Maoist) will also use political boundaries of state and districts, to their advantage. It is not without reason that most of the Maoist zones, sub- zones etc., straddle state and district boundaries.
Experience shows that inter- state coordination in anti- naxal operations still has a lot of catching up to do and the Naxals have taken advantage of this weakness. Telangana is also contiguous with other highly affected Maoist areas viz., Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra States. As such it is likely that the Maoists will extend their activities from these neighbouring states to Telangana, especially the districts of Adilabad, Karimnagar, Warangal, Khammam, parts of Nizamabad and Medak in north Telangana and Mahboobnagar and Nalgonda in south Telangana. It is important to note that it is not entirely a coincidence that the increased spread of Maoist violence in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, has been after thecreation of these states. Increase in poverty which is a natural corollary to a slowdown in economic activity, will drive more people into the arms of the CPI ( Maoist). This may again lead to a vicious cycle of naxalism, leading to less of economic activity and greater impoverishment, which may provide fillip to left wing extremism.
( ii) An important development that has to be noted is that after K. Chandra Shekar Rao gave up his fasting protest on 30.11.2009, Gaddar organized wide spread protests and later the top leadership of Maoists including Kishanji @ Mallojula Koteshwar have organized various protests programs through students of Osmania University and other universities of Telangana. Thus, while the student’s involvement in the Telangana agitation became very intense due to the encouragement of the local committees of the Maoists, Telangana Rashtra Samithi was also forced to utilize simmering sentiment in the students. When the intensity of the agitation by TRStarted ebbing down, Gaddar floated a new front called Telangana Praja Front ( TPF) on the instructions of the underground cadre of the Maoists to sustain agitation for a very prolonged duration. This front which is totally Maoist backed and motivated, tried to project itself as an alternate to KCR and TRS. Thus, the Maoists are trying to make a come back through the Telangana agitation. The impact of possible growth of Maoist/ Naxal influence in Telangana has to be evaluated in the right perspective keeping in mind that a large number of important and sensitive industries are located in and around Hyderabad.
Although TPF had sometime back moved away from TRS, they have again come back together which is a matter of serious concern.
( b) Communal Violence: ( i) Historically speaking Telangana area has more communally sensitive areas, due to the long 400 years of Qutub Shahi and Nizam rule and Razakar movement during the postindependence days. Telangana region, most specifically Hyderaad city has witnessed many communal riots which in most of the cases were triggered by very small and trivial issues.
The Hindu passions are being incited by the right wing parties which has also contributed to the outbreak of communal riots. The pockets which are vulnerable to the communal riots are Hyderabad city, Nirmal and Bhainsa of Adilabad, Nizamabad, Bodhan and Kamareddy of Nizamabad district, Jagityal, Korutla, Karimnagar towns of Karimnagar district, Zaheerabad and Medak town in Medak district, Nalgonda, Bhongir areas of Nalgonda district, Mahbubnagar and Narayanpet areas of Mahbubnagar district, Tandur and Vikarabad of Rangareddy district.
There is a certain sense of mutual suspicion between two communities who are living in the above mentioned areas. If communal passions become an additional factor in an atmosphere where unemployment, social unrest etc. exist, it may give rise to birth of militant Jihadi elements. The intelligence wing of the State Police and the IB will be more informed on this aspect. Telangana has large number of Muslim pockets and to counter Muslim influence, Hindu fundamentalists may compete with them and try to polarize the Hindu population. This unhealthy competition between Hindu and Muslim fundamentalist groups may tend to reduce the influence of the main stream secular political parties like the Congress and the Communists in the long run.
( ii) The AIMIM, BJP, RSS and Vishwa Hindu Parishad have a reasonably strong presence in the Telangana Region and in general take to inciting passions, indulging in communal rhetoric etc. Both political parties ( AIMIM & BJP) will be competing to expand their bases in Telangana state and in the process will try to ignite passions creating potential for communal unrest.
( c) Education implications : Most of the major educational infrastructure in the Telangana region has historically been owned by the Seemandhra people and it is located mostly within the limits of greater Hyderabad.
The student community which is spearheading the separate Telangana agitation has been using these educational institutions for their agitational activities. This may lead to migration of the faculty as well as these institutions, impacting/ reducing the availability of local persons who can be productively engaged by the industry/ business- houses.
( d) Migration issues: ( i) Telangana region is mineral rich having deposits of limestone, and granite. The dominant industries here are thermal power stations, pharmaceuticals etc., which are mostly managed by Seemandhra people. One of the main propaganda issues in the Telangana agitation has been that once a separate state is created, the job opportunities in all these industries will be made available to the people of Telangana. Many of the owners and skilled personnel in these industries have historically been from the Seemandhra region, the inability to substitute them with sufficient number of qualified locals may lead to conflict between the locals and non- locals and also between the management and the workforce.
Telangana region is dependent on coal reserves for its power generation while Seemandhra region, though dependent on coal reserves, is rapidly expanding its energy sources, viz., gas, wind, solar and nuclear. Thus, energy deficiencies may lead to migration of population, imbalance in the employment opportunities, which may become a cause for social unrest.
( ii) Farming in Telangana is mostly dependent on ground and rain water and lift irrigation schemes which require substantial amount of electrical energy. The present Government has extended free power facility to the farmers across the state which has benefitted the small and marginal farmers in Telangana region to a large extent. Some districts of Telangana region such as Nalgonda, Medak, Mahbubnagar and Hyderabad are industrially developed and hence consume substantial amount of energy. Since Telangana region energy sources are largely coal based thermal power plants, any economic imbalance may lead to energy starvation of the small and marginal farmers which will adversely affect the productivity of the land. This can cause decline in their earnings which may result in distress sale of lands and their migration to the industrial belt in the Hyderabad city. This may further cause change in the population profile, pressure on unskilled employment sector, land and water utilization in Hyderabad which in turn may accentuate inter- regional rivalry and tensions in Hyderabad area.
( iii) Telangana area is dominated by upper caste Reddys and Velamas, while the bulk of population is from the backward community, viz. Munnur Kapu, Mudhiraj, Gouds, Padmashalis and the Scheduled Caste Community of which the majority are ‘ madigas’. Historically, the political and economic activity has always been dominated by the Reddys and Velamas, and an important cause of naxalism was feudalism and discrimination by the dominant castes over the others. Even today while the leaders of the separate Telangana agitation are from dominant castes, the actual foot soldiers are mainly from the BCs and SCs, who are aspiring to acquire political space and leadership. These aspirations, if not realized may become an important factor contributing to social unrest.
SCENARIO 6
Providing Constitutional / Statutory safeguards to Telangana region by guaranteeing redressal of the region’s major grievances and keeping the State united 1. This option would not satisfy the people of Telangana having regard to the entrenched emotional feelings they harbor for creation of a separate state. Their sentiments have reached a heightened level in the recent past, were well echoed in the 12 Assembly byeelections of August 2010 and as such have to be fully addressed. The likely agitational activities have been discussed in the section dealing with Scenario 1 but it can be safely said that the intensity of agitations in many parts of Telangana by students, non- gazetted officials, lawyers, unemployed youth and even the farmers will be very high. While the emotional aspect, that of being discriminated against by the Seemandhra people is likely to remain, the extent to which the emotional aspirations ( the fulfillment of the psychological need of selfgovernance) are taken care of by the constitutional / statutory guarantees will determine the extent of backlash by the pro- Telangana people, their demand for a separate State not having been met. It is also equally important that such guarantees are articulated clearly and effectively brought to the notice of the general public of Telangana by all possible means.
2. The guarantees/ economic package have to necessarily include the following, to at least meet some of the important demands of the Telangana people: ( i) Psychological assurance that the people of Telangana shall not be discriminated against as perceived by them in the past and would be appropriately empowered in the decision making process such as the representatives of Telangana being given key positions in the government. In order to achieve this, the earlier arrangements like the decisions made in the Gentlemen’s Agreement may have to be revisited and if need be suitably expanded and strengthened.
( ii) To ensure that the statutory guarantees/ safeguards provided are properly implemented, provision should be made for taking out an Annual Report Card of their implementation as a confidence building measure for the people of Telangana.
( iii) The above Annual Report Card may also include the implementation of other recommendations made by the Committee and accepted by the Government pertaining to different sectors such as education, employment and irrigation and water resources etc. The above actions are extremely important as confidence building measures since implementation on some of the mutually agreed decisions and even Government orders has been found to be tardy and slow in the past.
3. The impression that the Telangana people have been somewhat let down in view of the fact that though earlier an indication had been given that the process of creation of a new State would be initiated and now since this will not be done in case the State is to stay united, has to be dispelled in a suitable manner bringing out that it is in the best long term interest not only for the people of the State but also for the people of Telangana. It is to be effectively instilled in their minds that this option is the best possible solution under the circumstances, not only for the State but for Telangana as well. Towards this end all/ most of the stakeholders/ important leaders of the State and media have to be brought on the same page, primarily through an active interactive process.
4. Some opinions have been expressed that this situation can also be exploited by the Maoists on the plea that unless an armed / violent agitation is carried out by the people of Telangana, Government of India will not create Separate Telangana. This call by the Maoists may attract unemployed youth both in rural and urban areas to join the movement and hence needs to be watched.
5. CONCLUSION
5.1 In view of the background of the complex situation, it would be seen that under each of the scenarios listed above, there is a high possibility of immediate agitational backlash in different regions of the State. While a strategy for handling medium and long term internal security dimensions, as discussed in the foregoing paras, that may emerge can be developed as the final decision on the issue is taken by the government, the need of the hour will be to handle the immediate backlash. In this context, the fact that TRS, the most vocal and aggressive amongst the political parties, has held the ‘ Telangana Maha Garjana’ rally at Warangal on December 16, 2010, reportedly attended by nearly 5 lakh people and has also plans to launch a civil disobedience movement after December 31, 2010 while initiating the action under ‘ Maha Yudham’ ( a massive war ) if Centre does not announce a separate Telangana, has to be kept in mind. Now since Telangana Praja Front ( Gaddar) and TRS have come together the situation has become even more serious.
5.2 The most important requirement for addressing the law and order problems that may arise in our view will be i) political clarity in terms of the future course of action and ii) the need for effective governance. The following mechanism is suggested to control the law and order situations that may emerge soon after the report is submitted and becomes public. The mechanism essentially should cover three areas i. e. i) political management and sensitization of political parties ii) media management and iii) high level of preparedness by the State Government ( Administration, Police, Intelligence, etc.) with needed and adequate support from the Centre.
5.3 Going by the history of similar agitations earlier, the sensitivities involved and the emotional undercurrent running across the State, the aim of this exercise has to be to take all possible actions in advance so that the possible backlash and law and order situations are contained and controlled effectively with minimum damage to human life and public and private properly while at the same time ensuring that the normal systems continue to operate and function in the State in a peaceful manner.
5.4 Role of National Integration Council ( NIC) : It is also felt that besides the action( s) suggested above, there is simultaneously a need for the National Integration Council ( NIC) to play a pro- active role in the State with a view to foster a sense of harmony amongst different communities so that the divisive conflicts are taken care of disorder and violence is avoided and the important goals and objectives of socioeconomic growth are achieved irrespective of the fact whether the division of the State takes place or not. The Committee feels that as enshrined in the charter of the NIC it has to be suitably emphasized that the social and economic justice can only be achieved if all the natives regardless of their linguistic, religious ethnic or cultural affiliations work towards this objective in a peaceful and harmonious manner. The Committee therefore, suggests that in the instant case a suitable mechanism in this regard may be devised by the NIC in consultation with the Union and the State Governments for implementation in the State in addition to the other suggestions articulated in para 5.2 above. N. B. : may also kindly see the Supplementary Note ( 3 pages) attached.
SUPPLEMENTARY NOTE
a) Political Management:
( i) There is a need for ensuring unity among the leaders of the ruling party in the State. There is also a need for providing strong and firm political leadership and placement of representatives of Telangana in key positions ( may be CM / Dy.CM) ( Since done). This aspect was discussed with FM & HM in September 2010. Action also needs to be initiated for softening the TRS to extent possible, especially in the context of the fact that TRS has threatened to launch a civil disobedience movement after December 31 and also initiate a ‘ Maha Yuddam’ ( a Massive war) if Centre does not announce a Separate Telangana. Gaddar’s TPF ( Telangana Praja Front) who had parted company with TRS have again joined hands with TRS. Inputs indicate that this agitation can be tackled if Telangana Congress leaders do not give an impression indicating any covert/ over support to it. Hence the Telangana Congress MPs / MLAs need to be taken into confidence and asked not to lend any form of support to the agitation. The Congress High Command must sensitize its own MPS and MLAs and educate them about the wisdom for arriving at an acceptable and workable solution. With the ruling party and also the main opposition party ( the TDP run by Chandra Babu) must be brought on the same page, the support mechanisms have a higher probability of becoming successful. The TDP must be advised not to participate in any further meetings that would be called by the Centre.
This could be an effective stumbling block for any meaningful dialogue on resolving the Telangana demand. The Andhra Congress MPs belonging to Kamma caste must be encouraged to work in tandem with TDP leadership which is now caught in a bad shape.
( ii) Further, on receipt of the Committee’s Report by the Government, a general message should be conveyed amongst the people of the State that Centre will be open for detailed discussions on the recommendations / options of the Report with the concerned leaders / stakeholders either directly or through a Group of Ministers or through important interlocutors and that this process will start at the earliest. But every method must be adopted to avoid giving finality to any discussions to drag on the matter until the agitation is totally brought under control.
( c) Media Management:
( i) Andhra Pradesh has got about 13 Electronic Channels and 5 major local Newspapers which are in the forefront of molding the public opinion. Except for two Channels ( Raj News & HMTV), the rest of them are supporters of a united Andhra Pradesh. The equity holders of the channels except the above two and the entire Print Media are with the Seemandhra people. The main editors/ resident and subeditors, the Film world etc. are dominated by Seemandhra people. A coordinated action on their part has the potential of shaping the perception of the common man. However, the beat journalists in the respective regions are locals and are likely to capture only those events/ news which reflect the regional sentiments. This can be tackled by the owners of the media houses by systematically replacing the local journalists by those from Seemandhra wherever it is possible.
( ii) Hyderabad city which is expected to be the center of most of the agitations is generally covered by those journalists who are votaries of a separate Telangana. Hence a lot of media hype on the Osmania University Students agitation, self- immolations etc. may be created. Therefore, media management assumes critical importance to ensure that only the reality is projected and no unnecessary hype is created. In the immediate past, it is observed that the media coverage on the issue has shown a declining trend resulting in a lower intensity of the agitation. Each of the media houses are affiliated to different political parties. In the Print Media all major newspapers are owned by Seemandhra people and the Regional contents published by them play a vital role. Most of the editors except Andhra Jyothi are pro- united A. P. However, similar to the electronic channels, the print media have also got political affiliations. The editorial opinions, the banner headlines, the Regional content, the District editions need to be managed to be realistic and should give only due coverage to the separate Telangana agitations. The print media is hugely dependent on the Government for advertisement revenue and if carefully handled can be an effective tool to achieve this goal.
However, the RTI Act may prove to be an impediment for the Government to deny due share of ads to publications supporting the Telangana demand.
( iii) In concrete terms, it needs to be particularly ensured that media does not: ( a) Create a Psychosis of fear amongst the public ( b) Indulge in general and baseless speculations that can create unnecessary hype of any kind ( c) Arouse communal passions ( d) Show old and irrelevant clippings of violence / violent agitations etc.
For this purpose necessary prohibitory orders under appropriate provisions of law can be issued in advance.
( d) Full Preparedness
( i) As under each of the options there is a high possibility of agitational backlash, notwithstanding the actions taken in advance as suggested in ( a) and ( b) above, an appropriate plan of deployment grid of police force ( both Central and State) with full technical support needs to be immediately drawn up. Advance preparedness in this regard would go a long way in containing the law and order situation and minimize destruction of lives and property.
It would also be necessary to have a mechanism for monitoring the situation and collection of real time intelligence with a view to ensure taking up of effective advance action to preempt any break of violence in the potentially troubled spots. The likely troubled spots ( e. g.Osmania, Kakatia, Krishna Devraya Universities etc.) and the trouble creators in the three regions must be identified in advance and suitable action plan prepared. In my discussions with Chief Secretary and DGP, the kind of equipment and weaponry to be used were also discussed and it was agreed that weaponry used should be such as not to cause fatal injuries, while at the same time effective enough to bring the agitationists quickly under control.
In a nutshell it may be concluded that the first couple of months will be critical after the submission of the Report, as speculative stories will thrive and emotions of people incited.
